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Showing posts with label Indo-US Nuclear Deal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indo-US Nuclear Deal. Show all posts
A US Congressman makes public an internal note from his government relating to the Indo-American nuclear deal, and the tumult and the shouting starts in India.
What is the significance of this note? Does it infringe on India’s sovereignty? Was it part of what could be called Bushing (not to be mixed up with ‘phishing’ or ‘bushing’), which sometimes causes confusion. President Bush is said to have his own lexicon. Perhaps the President, though he didn’t sign the note, could have been misleading his own people.
What does the note say? The main point of objection in India appears to be the mention that the US would stop nuclear supplies if India conducts an atomic test. Now, how could such an eventuality come about?
The relevant points are:
1. India has a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing in force. To carry out a test in future, the ban has to be revoked. Is that likely?
2. The countries, India included, that are advanced in nuclear technology do not, it would appear, need to carry out more physical tests. The exercise is now done on computers.
3. If India does conduct a test on some future date, the nuclear supplies from the US do not stop automatically. The incumbent US President at that time would have to decide. The commercial benefits to the US would be a major factor in arriving at a conclusion.
4. The US is not the only supplier of India’s nuclear requirements.
5. We are looking at a short 4/5 decade time-span till our thorium-based technology is streamlined.
International agreements are confined to what is inked by the countries involved and do not include internal notes of one party. The Government of India certainly could not have presented the confidential domestic communication of another country for debate in the Parliament.
If the Americans had formally sent us a copy of the note concerned, we would have had to take cognizance of it. As of now it remains an opinion, rightly or wrongly worded, of an outgoing administration. The next administration in the White House may or may not endorse it.
Our sensitivity to what others say amounts to a lack of self confidence. The question should be whether we know what we want and are we getting it? Why waste time and energy on what is whispered behind our backs or the internal dialogue of another country?
On 6/23/08 I wrote (Nuclear Deal: The Left, and the Right) that China would be the gainer if the Indo-American Nuclear Deal did not materialize. Now it seems clear that China has reservations about it. Surely, internal notes (if China has that system) would have passed within that country’s government. There is no reason why we should bother about that.
What is intriguing is the timing and the reason for Congressman Howard Berman to make the note public. He reportedly said that he wanted the people of America to know. That revelation came to him after holding on to the communication for nearly nine months. If the NSG had approved the Indo-American Nuclear Deal at its earlier meeting, Berman would have missed the bus, whatever his reason was for wanting to board it.
Let us look at the matter objectively. If the final product is acceptable, we take it. Otherwise we dump it.
Last week India witnessed two ominous events. The first was yet another incursion into Indian territory by the Chinese. The other was the Left parties carrying the brinkmanship on India’s talks with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) almost to a point of no return.
What is the problem with IAEA negotiations? Accord with IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is a prerequisite for concluding India’s 123 Nuclear Agreement with the USA. The IAEA, which was originally formed as ‘Atoms for Peace’ under the UN umbrella, is the premier agency for promoting safe, secure and peaceful use of atomic energy. Without their approval, India may not be able to procure uranium, the critical material, even for the existing facilities.
China has been a member of IAEA from 1984. The statement made by China at the IAEA General Conference in 1997 says, "China always supports the safeguards activities of the Agency. China signed the voluntary-offer safeguards agreement with the Agency soon after joining it, and subsequently acceded to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the NPT, displaying China's consistent sincere wish for the maintenance of world peace and stability…” The full text can be read at http://www.nti.org/db/China/engdocs/chiaea97.htm [Accessed on 21/6/08]
Why do the Communists oppose India’s discussions with the IAEA? Their view seems to be that India should limit its atomic cooperation to Russia. But Russia has made it clear that India has to obtain clearance from the IAEA and the NSG before future collaboration in the nuclear field can be effective. Russia is reportedly supporting Indo-US Nuclear Pact.
It is generally considered that India’s nuclear technology is more advanced than China’s. Both countries accept the reality that atomic plants are essential to meet their energy needs. Ground realities do not sustain the Indian Communist’s claim that alternate sources like coal can provide the country’s power requirements. Therefore, it is not surprising that the major parties in the country do not oppose the idea of an Indo-US Nuclear Deal.
Is the Left unaware that China would be the gainer if India’s nuclear energy program is thwarted? China is rapidly expanding their atomic power capability with mostly Western technology. Even Westinghouse of USA had helped them build a facility. According to reports China’s plan is to expand their nuclear energy capacity six-fold by 2020.
If the Indo-US Nuclear Pact becomes a reality and India enters the world market, there would be escalation of the demand for and prices of uranium. Neither India nor China is self-sufficient in this metal. If India is out, China can procure uranium at low prices and outpace India’s development. By the time India stabilizes its thorium (indigenously available and cheaper) based technology in the next few decades, China would be too far ahead.
If the UPA, more specifically the Congress, genuinely believes that the Deal is good for the country, they should go ahead and conclude the talks with the IAEA and sign the 123 Agreement. That may lead to premature election and possible loss of power. The Left parties, in turn, would have the chance to face the people and vindicate their stand.
It would be a historic day for India if those in power decide to put the country before the self interest of hanging on to their seats.
